| abstract
| - (1) (2) This article is intended to point out flaws in the strategies of "lottery expert" Gail Howard.[1] Gail Howard is a self proclaimed lottery expert who sells books and computer software that claim to give you a better chance of winning the lottery using "smart luck" (using her system) instead of what she calls "dumb luck" (playing other ways, including using quick picks) Most of the strategies used by Gail Howard use statistically valid probability - the problem comes from her interpretation of those probabilities. In many cases it appears that she is intentionally lying to her customers who do not have enough mathematical education to see through her lies. This example uses information directly from Gail's website : [2] " In the 49-number pick-6 lotto game, the most frequently occurring sum is 150, which is the Midpoint Sum. The sums of lotto combinations can be compared to the sums of combinations on a pair of dice. On either end of the Bell Curve, there is only one way to make a 12 (boxcars, 6 and 6), and there is only one way to make a 2 (snake eyes, 1 and 1). But there are SIX ways to make a 7 (the top center point of a Bell Curve for a pair of dice). They are 6 and 1, 1 and 6, 5 and 2, 2 and 5, 4 and 3, 3 and 4. So, of course, it is much easier to throw a 7 in dice than any other number because there are more ways of getting the sum of 7. " This information is seemingly impressive at first glance, but under further scrutiny, it is completely useless. It is true that there is a better chance of getting a 7 than there is of getting a 2 or a 12. However, if you throw a pair of dice and have to predict the result like you do in the lottery, you have to predict which pair of dice will be rolled, not just what the sum of the two will be. If you predict that the sum will be 7,you still have to say how the 7 will be rolled... maybe 2 and 5. You have a 1 in 6 probability of being right... however, you then only have a 1 in 6 chance of having the right combination that added up to 7, which leads to 1 in 36 chance of winning. (Having the right sum with the wrong combination of the dice is no better than having the wrong sum) When you predict the sum will be 2, the only way to win is to roll a pair of ones. It is true that there is only a 1 in 36 chance of the sum being 2... but every time that sum shows up, you will win. The end result is a 1 in 36 chance of winning... the same as when you predict a 7. The same is true if you pick something in between like 1 and 4 for a sum of 5. You have a 1 in 9 chance of having the right sum, but then you have a 1 in 4 chance of having the right combination. Of course, the end result is still 1 in 36. One explanation would be that Gail Howard is not educated enough about probability. Another would be that she is educated about it and chooses to ignore the truth in order to sell books. Gail Howard also likes to brag about how many people have won jackpots using her system. The problem with this is that there is no way to know how many people use her system. If for example, 1 percent of lottery tickets are bought using her system and 1 percent of the winning tickets were bought using her system, then that isn't impressive at all - it is just probability. When you look at the popularity of her system, combined with the number of different lottery games in this country, it is not surprising that she has had a lot of winners. (at least one of the wins advertised on her site is for $73,338 - while I'm sure just about everyone would be happy to win that much money, it is not a very rare thing in the world of lotteries... many people win that much every day!) The funny thing is that if half of all people buy their tickets by letting their dogs pick the numbers, roughly half of all winners for any drawing will be people that let their dogs pick the numbers - if somebody tried to write a book that said you should let your dog pick the numbers, I don't think it would sell very well.
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